A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Alert

A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."